College Football is Thriving in the NIL Era: An Oregon State Perspective
Yeah, we know. We’ve heard it all many times over. Said it ourselves, even. The combination of NIL and the transfer portal has completely reshaped (ruined?) college football. Its existence, coupled with conference realignment, has created existential headaches for non-blue blood programs across the nation. But, for Oregon State, this new era might actually be a good thing. Hear me out.
The Beavs, specifically Trent Bray and staff, along with the university’s official NIL collective partner, Dam Nation, may have found a niche for attracting top talent which is resonating with college transfers and high school recruits alike: immediate playing time, a strong developmental track record, rock-solid program culture, and a clear path to NFL exposure.
This isn’t just about living within this new world of college football. It’s a tactical and feasible plan for thriving in it. For teams like OSU, where, historically, landing top recruits hasn’t always been easy, the fallout of rising trends influenced by the introduction of Name, Image, and Likeness may actually be it’s best chance to go head-to-head with the big names. How? By zeroing in on what players really care about: playing time, improvement, and the opportunity to raise their NFL draft stock.
Transfer Trends: The Impact of Moving Up or Down
Let’s look at the trends. The transfer portal has become a big deal in college football. By 2023-2024, anywhere between 20-25% of FBS players entered the portal annually, with many moving to programs where they could secure more playing time or better NIL deals. Across all FBS teams, transfers accounted for an estimated 30% of starting rosters in 2024.
But transferring doesn't always mean the grass will be greener, especially for players heading to fancier programs, even if you plan on bringing your water with you. Approximately 40% of transfer portal entrants fail to find a new team, leaving many without scholarships or opportunities. Beyond that, it’s fair to assume that players transferring “up” and landing at “powerhouse programs” more often then not find themselves buried on depth charts full of high-caliber players chosen ahead of them during their high school recruitment process. However, this assumption has some legs.
According to Indiana University's NCAA Transfer Portal Analysis, their study of 782 players showed that snap counts decreased by an average of 15-20% for non-quarterback transfers moving to top-tier programs. Wide receivers lose an average of 167 receiving yards per season after transferring to more competitive programs, while those transferring “down” gain 130 yards. Defensive linemen see a similar drop, with a 15% reduction in tackles, hurries, and sacks as shown in ScoutSmart's findings. Offensive linemen fare no better, averaging 15% fewer snaps and a 6% drop in pass-blocking grades. Skill positions, particularly quarterbacks (10.8%), wide receivers (8.1%), and defensive backs (7.2%), are most likely to enter the portal.
These positions usually require less physical development, making transfers attractive to players with a desire to play immediately. But the tradeoff for moving up for greater NIL earnings, more exposure on linear TV and prime kickoff time slots, and program prestige often actually means less exposure, fewer snaps, and reduced production, you know, things NFL scouts actually care about.
The Shrinking Gap in Recruiting Rankings
NIL has reshaped the priorities of college athletes, muddying the singular focus of conference, program, or coaching staff prestige to a combination of NIL opportunities, culture, fit, and most importantly, playing time. The trend that’s rising? Greater parity in talent and recruitment rankings across college football. NIL is a vehicle here, but more so when coupled with the transfer portal. Around 50% of transfers from Power 5 schools moved to non-Power 5 programs, helping to narrow the talent gap that’s existed for decades.
Did you notice that the composite score for the No. 1 recruiting class has steadily declined over the past four years? According to 247Sports, the top-ranked class of 2025 (Texas) scored 93.69, a slight uptick from Georgia’s 93.37 in 2024, but a significant drop from Alabama’s 95.07 in 2021. To put this in perspective, this nearly two-point decline mirrors the difference between the No. 3 and No. 18 classes in prior years.
While programs like Texas still command an edge on the recruitment trail, we’re still experiencing a downward trend compared to recent years. The gap between the No. 1 and No. 10 recruiting classes has also narrowed significantly, shrinking to 2.8 points in 2024 from the 4-5 point disparities of 2018-2020.
Look at the distribution of five-star recruits: in 2024, 32 five-star athletes signed with 17 different programs, a decently large contrast to previous years when top talent was concentrated among fewer powerhouse schools. By result, schools like OSU are actually now better positioned to compete for top recruits. Yes, I’m crazy.
Snap Counts, Draft Stock, and Program Loyalty
For NFL hopefuls, how many snaps they play is critical for scouts. Players selected in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft averaged over 800 snaps in their final season of college football. On the other hand, late-round picks and undrafted free agents averaged just under 500 snaps. Snaps, of course, are indicative of ability, depth, and doghouses, but the transfer portal (and its buddy NIL) has added a whole other ingredient to the mix.
Transfers struggle to rack up those snap counts. The answer to “why” is obvious. Only 38% of them go on to start at least half their games at their new schools. Meanwhile, players who stick with their original programs enjoy a 20% larger increase in their snap count every year. Playing consistently in one system is also linked more strongly to NFL success than raw athletic skills.
Playing time is still king for both improving and showcasing your abilities. The average career earnings of NFL players who transferred is approximately $3 million, compared to $5 million for non-transfers. The biggest exception to the rule, quarterbacks. College QBs often transfer “up” to programs that will increase their visibility and draft prospects, but typically only make the jump “up” when there’s a clear path to start. Still, for players pursuing their NFL dreams, staying with one program and within a familiar system usually, and unsurprisingly, ends up working out better.
Oregon State's Strategic Approach to Modern College Football
NIL is the new top-dog recruitment lever. Most schools have at least one collective representing their efforts, some have a couple, few have many, and a handful only lean on one very old uncle. But NIL is everywhere. Sure, significant financial disparities still remain between Power and Group conferences, and that gap is likely only to widen as revenue sharing, TV deals, and NIL collectives become more established, savvy, and brazen. However, according to CBS Sports, the average NIL earnings for a Power 5 starter range from $45,000 to $75,000 annually, with little difference between conferences, outside of quarterback positions garnering the most earnings.
So, here’s the twist. NIL, despite its flaws, has still become the driving force for parity. Oregon State has an opportunity to position themselves as beneficiaries of this parity, coupling not-insignificant-NIL earning potential with factors of (likely) growing importance: playing time and development. Need a sneak peek of where we’re headed? The recent commits from Maalik Murphy and T'Andre Waverly are signals this approach can work.
Maalik Murphy’s Choice
Murphy signed a rumored $1.5 million NIL deal with the Dam Nation Collective, though he easily could've decided to go to SEC schools like Auburn or Kentucky who likely offered similar paychecks. But Oregon State affords him more than just cash: the right cultural fit, opponents to trounce, and of course, the chance to play immediately. There’s data to support his decision too. Remember the part above where I talked about snap count equating to draft stock? Yeah. The balance of recognized NIL value, ample playing time, and solid program culture are a winning formula.
T’Andre Waverly’s Commitment
Four-star tight end T'Andre Waverly turned down offers from programs like Washington, Oregon, Miami, and Penn State to commit to the Beavs on national TV during the Navy All-American game. Known nationally as one of the fastest tight end prospects after running a blistering 10.64 second 100 meter dash, Waverly chose Oregon State for the culture and the way the Beavs use their tight ends. “I see the upward trend in the program and it’s something I’m all in on,” Waverly said.
Murphy and Waverly are just small examples of the growing trend among recruits: there’s more value in growth opportunities and significant playing time than a prestigious conference or university logo.
Residual Impact of Parity on College Football
This newfound parity won’t only be enjoyed just by those on the field, either. FBS attendance jumped by 3% in 2024, marking the biggest increase since 1982. Meanwhile, ESPN platforms recorded their most-watched season since 2016, averaging 1.9 million viewers per game, per the same report. The fans? Yeah, we love competitive football games.
Another example of how the NIL/Portal Era is fixing college football? Since 2020, the SEC has only averaged 1 team in the AP Top 10 at season’s end. Before 2020, the average was anywhere between 2 and 4, annually.
The Future for Oregon State
Teams like Oregon State are making the most of this new balance by focusing on:
Immediate Playing Time: Recruits know they'll get a chance to play right away.
Player Development: The Beavers have a reputation for maximizing talent.
NFL Exposure: Snap counts and consistency are emphasized to boost draft stock.
Strategic NIL Investments: Oregon State targets recruits who value long-term success over one-off paydays.
The Beavs' emphasis on development, loyalty, and playing time is a formula for sustainable success in the NIL era. For Beaver Nation, there's excitement in watching players like Murphy and Waverly thrive. For all the talk that NIL and the transfer portal are going to obliterate the small guys, Oregon State is proving that a path to the NFL, and the road to sustained success, won’t always run through traditional powerhouses. Just like the greatest river in the entire western hemisphere, and likely the world, it can run through Corvallis. The Paris of the Pacific Northwest, where opportunities for growth and greatness await.
And the kids are getting smart to this.